.THERE IS minimal uncertainty about the very likely winner of Britain's standard political election on July fourth: with a top of 20 portion aspects in national point of view surveys, the Labour Party is exceptionally probably to succeed. But there is uncertainty concerning the dimension of Labour's majority in Britain's 650-seat Residence of Commons. Some polling agencies have actually released seat predictions making use of a novel method referred to as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP). What are these polls-- and also exactly how precise are they?